INFLUENCE OF THE EVENT RATE ON DISCRIMINATION ABILITIES OF BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELS Lili Zhang 1 , Jennifer Priestley 2 , and Xuelei Ni 3 1 Program in Analytics and Data Science, Kennesaw State University, Georgia, USA 2 Analytics and Data Science Institute, Kennesaw State University, Georgia, USA 3 Department of Statistics, Kennesaw State University, Georgia, USA ABSTRACT In bankruptcy prediction, the proportion of events is very low, which is often oversampled to eliminate this bias. In this paper, we study the influence of the event rate on discrimination abilities of bankruptcy prediction models. First the statistical association and significance of public records and firmographics indicators with the bankruptcy were explored. Then the event rate was oversampled from 0.12% to 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%, respectively. Seven models were developed, including Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, ...
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